Some time ago, I picked up a book called The Decision Book: 50 Models for Strategic Thinking by Mikael Krogerus and Roman Tschappeler.

A slim hardcover that could slip into the back pocket of a pair of Levi’s, it’s designed to help readers do one thing: make better decisions.

“When we encounter chaos,” the authors write, “we seek ways to structure it, to see through it, or at least to gain an overview of it. Models help us to reduce the complexity of a situation by enabling us to dismiss most of it and concentrate on what is important.”

Chaos feels like an apt description of business today. AI is rewriting how organizations operate, markets are shifting faster than ever, and what once felt predictable now feels uncertain. Disrupted, disordered, unstable—these are the conditions in which leaders are expected to act.

The question is how to navigate that chaos—how to make decisions when so much is unknown.

As a writer and strategist, I’ve found frameworks and models indispensable. A simple SWOT analysis can bring discipline to an idea. An empathy map can unlock a client’s understanding of their customer. A brand perception map can reveal competitive positioning at a glance. Constraints like these almost always produce better outcomes than relying on instinct alone.

Because to be in business—whether you’re a CEO or a marketing manager—is to be in the business of making decisions. Budgets, people, priorities: the job is choice-making. Preferably, choices that move both you and your organization forward.

But good decisions are slippery. They’re obvious in hindsight, and rarely certain in the moment. As Annie Duke writes in How to Decide, “Any decision is, in essence, a prediction about the future.”

If that’s true, then our task as leaders is to make better predictions. And the best way to make better predictions is to use better tools. Models and frameworks don’t eliminate uncertainty, but they reduce noise, clarify options, and force us to see what matters most.

So as you move through this year, ask yourself which frameworks you’re using to sharpen your predictions. Explore something new—The Rumsfeld Matrix, the Cognitive Dissonance Model—and put them to work.

You don’t have to rely on instinct alone. In chaotic times, a simple model can be the difference between reacting blindly and responding with clarity.

And that, in the end, is an easy decision to make.