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Marketing Strategy

Tim Hillegonds

The Unignorable Role of Risk in Marketing

Marketing spend isn’t a fee—it’s an investment. And like any investment, it carries risk. The smartest companies treat their marketing like a portfolio, balancing steady, lower-risk activity with bold, higher-risk moves that fuel long-term growth.

In marketing, two words are often conflated: fee and investment. “Investment” is sometimes used as a softer way of saying “fee,” as if changing the word could make the cost more palatable. But the terms aren’t synonymous. A fee is a fixed payment for a service. An investment involves risk, uncertainty, and the potential for return.

In finance, when you invest in a fund, you accept that you could gain—or lose. You can reduce risk and reduce potential reward, or increase risk and increase potential reward. What you can’t do is increase both risk and certainty at the same time. Marketing investments work the same way.

Risk Is Built In

In his book, How to Buy a Gorilla, David Meikle defines marketing risk as “the unpredictability of return, or the variability of the performance of any component in a marketing campaign.” Risk shows up in many places: the innovation of the proposition, the creative execution, or the media channels chosen.

Most importantly, risk is tied to innovation. As Meikle notes: “Implicit in innovation is newness… and with newness there must be some degree of risk. You’ll never know until you try.”

Balancing the Portfolio

Perceived effectiveness also depends on campaign goals. “Always-on” marketing—often used by insurers, utilities, or companies defending market share—can mitigate risk by building steady presence. But even always-on tactics carry exposure. A new competitor can still erode market share despite consistent spend.

The solution is to treat marketing like an investment portfolio: diversify. Blend high-risk/low-certainty tactics (innovation, bold creative, new channels) with lower-risk/higher-certainty tactics (recency, presence, steady share of voice). That overlap is where brands find balance—protecting today while investing in tomorrow.

As Meikle writes, “In growth markets, innovation is an essential ingredient to attract new customers, stimulate loyal ones, or make lapsed customers reappraise and potentially return.”

Fee or Investment?

When you commit dollars to marketing, be clear which you’re making. If it’s a fee, expect a service. If it’s an investment, expect risk, uncertainty, and—if it’s well managed—the potential for meaningful return.

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